Spring Training: March Projections

NYY	97	65	0.599		NYM	85	77	0.525
BOS	93	69	0.574		PHI	82	80	0.506
TOR	88	74	0.543		ATL	82	80	0.506
TBR	85	77	0.525		WAS	76	86	0.469
BAL	78	84	0.481		FLA	67	95	0.414
CHW	87	75	0.537		CHC	88	74	0.543
KC	79	83	0.488		HOU	84	78	0.519
MIN	76	86	0.469		STL	82	80	0.506
CLE	76	86	0.469		MIL	82	80	0.506
DET	75	87	0.463		CIN	80	82	0.494
					PIT	77	85	0.475
LAA	85	77	0.525		COL	87	75	0.537
TEX	81	81	0.500		LAD	81	81	0.500
OAK	80	82	0.494		SDP	80	82	0.494
SEA	74	88	0.457		ARI	76	86	0.469
					SFG	67	95	0.414

Who will be this year's Rays?

First of all, I hate that phrase “be this year’s…whatever”, but a cliché is a cliché and the baseball fan knows what I mean. So, I’ll just be lazy and stay in the same state.

The Florida Marlins are the surprise team everyone is talking about. (I guess that kills the surprise.) It’s not like me to choose a team that’s the favorite underdog, so starting the season I’ll lower expectations.

My reason for low-balling them is health. Their starting pitching has phenomenal talent, however Josh Johnson has had his share of injuries and Anibal Sanchez (one no-hitter under the belt) hasn’t pitched a full season in a while. Both pitchers have huge upside and with Ricky Nolasco and Chris Volstad (2.88 ERA in 14 career starts), the Marlins can have a strong rotation.

The youth in their pitching almost mirrors that of the Tampa Bay Rays. The difference between both teams is the offense. The Rays offense underachieved significantly last year, mostly as a result of youth. The Marlins offense, although young, is not as inexperienced as the Rays were and should breed more consistency. They have Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Jorge Cantu as three players more than capable of 30 home run seasons and driving in over 300 runs between them.

But as another cliché goes: Pitching wins. (Scoring runs does help.) Look at what the Rays did in a strong American League. What are the possibilities for the Marlins in the weaker National League? They can win the NL East. The Phillies didn’t deserve it last year (I hear the booing from Philadelphia) and the Mets didn’t want it.

But as of right now, I will not buy in completely to the Marlins until I see some durability. The pitching can have all the talent in the world, but if it has the luck of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, or Ben Sheets, it could be another mediocre season.

CC or Dice-K?

Last night, I was sitting around with a group of guys and baseball came up as a topic of discussion. As we were talking it came out that at the table we had a Yankees and Red Sox fan (really two Yankee fans, but one was a spectator for the most part). So as the nice guy that I am, I prodded both of them to get into a heated discussion about the teams. The Yankee fan was very loud and wouldn’t allow anyone to interject and the Red Sox fan sat back with a smirk knowing his team has two World Series trophies in the last five years.

I felt the need to shine some light on some general comparisons and the first thing I said was the Yankees have a better starting rotation. I followed up saying that the Red Sox are very good also, but the Yankees are better. My first goal was achieved, I got the Yankee fan to sit back in his chair and quiet down so the other five people sitting there could speak or at least hear someone else.

The Red Sox are very good and they’re rotation will be led by strong seasons from Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester. Even when John Smoltz makes his appearance sometime midseason, he will be very good. However, CC Sabathia will be better than Matsuzaka. Joba Chamberlain will excel as a starter, although innings will be limited. Phil Hughes will be brought back to the Yankees rotation at some point this season and will show the American League why the Yankees didn’t trade him for Johan Santana.

These two rotations are very close in talent. Both have an excellent mix of youth and experience. Both starting rotations will get 70+ wins.

The main reason I give the Yankees the edge is because of health.

Chien-Ming Wang was hurt on a freak injury because he forgot how to run down a third base line with a jacket on so his arm will be fine. A.J. Burnett is the only Yankee with a true history of injury and when misses a few starts, Phil Hughes will be more than an adequate spot starter.

Josh Beckett was hampered with back issues last year. John Smoltz is coming off surgery. Brad Penny was hurt for most of the season last year. All three more than capable of dominating any lineup with not only stuff but with their brains, but they need to be healthy. That’s a lot of injury questions that will need to be answered. With very good health to those three (not expecting complete seasons) there’s very high reward.

Spring Training Projections

NYY	104	58	0.642		PHI	91	71	0.562
BOS	94	68	0.580		NYM	86	76	0.531
TBR	90	72	0.556		ATL	80	82	0.494
TOR	87	75	0.537		WAS	76	86	0.469
BAL	77	85	0.475		FLA	64	98	0.395
CHW	82	80	0.506		CHC	93	69	0.574
CLE	77	85	0.475		HOU	86	76	0.531
KC	76	86	0.469		STL	85	77	0.525
DET	73	89	0.451		MIL	82	80	0.506
MIN	71	91	0.438		PIT	77	85	0.475
					CIN	75	87	0.463
LAA	86	76	0.531		COL	86	76	0.531
OAK	78	84	0.481		SDP	85	77	0.525
TEX	75	87	0.463		LAD	81	81	0.500
SEA	71	91	0.438		ARI	71	91	0.438
					SFG	71	91	0.438

Updated (Feb 16): There were issues with inaccurate potential starting rotations..

Fantasy Rankings: Shortstops

1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Mike Aviles, Royals
5. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
6. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
7. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
8. Derek Jeter, Yankees
9. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
10. Yunel Escobar, Braves
11. Miguel Tejada, Astros
12. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Edgar Renteria, Giants
15. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
16. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
17. Elvis Andrus, Rangers
18. Khalil Greene, Cardinals
19. Jason Bartlett, Rays
20. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
21. Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays
22. Jack Wilson, Pirates
23. Alex Gonzalez, Reds
24. Cesar Izturis, Orioles
25. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
    
26. Bobby Crosby, Athletics
27. Brendan Harris, Twins
28. Erick Aybar, Angels
29. David Eckstein, Padres
30. Adam Everett, Tigers
    

Fantasy Rankings: Third Basemen

1. David Wright, Mets
2. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
3. Chipper Jones, Braves
4. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
6. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
7. Alex Gordon, Royals
8. Michael Young, Rangers
9. Pablo Sandoval, Giants
10. Evan Longoria, Rays
11. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
12. Mark DeRosa, Indians
13. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
14. Melvin Mora, Orioles
15. Casey Blake, Dodgers
16. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
17. Chone Figgins, Angels
18. Josh Fields, White Sox
    
19. Andy LaRoche, Pirates
20. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
21. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
22. Ryan Zimmermann, Nationals
23. Bill Hall, Brewers
24. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
25. Brandon Inge, Tigers
26. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
27. Brian Buscher, Twins
28. Eric Chavez, Athletics
29. Geoff Blum, Astros
30. Pedro Feliz, Phillies

Changes:
February 8, 2009 - Josh Fields (White Sox) will be starting over Wilson Betemit.

Fantasy Rankings: Second Basemen

1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brian Roberts, Orioles
3. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
4. Kelly Johnson, Braves
5. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
6. Brandon Phillips, Reds
7. Dan Uggla, Marlins
8. Placido Polanco, Tigers
9. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
10. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
11. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
12. Alexi Casilla, Twins
13. Kaz Matsui, Astros
14. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
15. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
16. Joe Inglett, Blue Jays
17. Jose Lopez, Mariners
18. Mark Ellis, Athletics
19. Alberto Callaspo, Royals
20. Chris Getz, White Sox
21. Felipe Lopez, Diamondbacks
22. Luis Castillo, Mets
23. Robinson Cano, Yankees
24. Anderson Hernandez, Nationals
25. Clint Barmes, Rockies
26. Howie Kendrick, Angels
27. Emmanuel Burriss, Giants
28. Edgar Gonzalez, Padres
29. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
30. Aaron Miles, Cubs
    

Fantasy Rankings: First Basemen

1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
2. Chris Davis, Rangers
3. Lance Berkman, Astros
4. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
5. Mark Teixeira, Yankees
6. Justin Morneau, Twins
7. Prince Fielder, Brewers
8. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
9. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
10. Derrek Lee, Cubs
11. Ryan Howard, Phillies
12. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
13. Joey Votto, Reds
14. Todd Helton, Rockies
15. Travis Ishikawa, Giants
16. Carlos Delgado, Mets
17. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
18. Nick Johnson, Nationals
19. Carlos Pena, Rays
20. Casey Kotchman, Braves
21. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
22. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
23. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
24. Kendry Morales, Angels
25. James Loney, Dodgers
26. Mike Jacobs, Royals
27. Daric Barton, Athletics
28. Ryan Garko, Indians
29. Paul Konerko, White Sox
30. Bryan LaHair, Mariners