America's Pastime

If all teams remained as is with all free agents no longer a member on a team, these are the projections. As we progress in the offseason towards a new season, we will see how trades and free agent signing can impact teams for the upcoming season.

BOS	98	64	0.605	NYM	84	78	0.519
TBR	92	70	0.568	PHI	82	80	0.506
NYY	90	72	0.556	ATL	79	83	0.488
TOR	87	75	0.537	FLA	74	88	0.457
BAL	73	89	0.451	WAS	55	107	0.340

CHW	92	70	0.568	CHC	91	71	0.562
DET	84	78	0.519	HOU	84	78	0.519
MIN	81	81	0.500	MIL	82	80	0.506
KC	80	82	0.494	PIT	77	85	0.475
CLE	74	88	0.457	STL	76	86	0.469
				CIN	76	86	0.469

LAA	90	72	0.556	SDP	84	78	0.519
TEX	77	85	0.475	ARI	82	80	0.506
OAK	77	85	0.475	LAD	81	81	0.500
SEA	75	87	0.463	COL	81	81	0.500
				SFG	72	90	0.444

Congratulations to the Phillies and Phillies fans for their first World Series victory in 28 years and the city of Philadelphia for their first championship with the four major sports in 25 years. However, just like any other Major League Baseball team, they will need to make some changes in the offseason. Let’s begin with the offense:

The Phillies were tied for second in runs scored in the National League with their beloved rivals, the New York Mets. Ryan Howard (1B), Chase Utley (2B), Jimmy Rollins (SS), Shane Victorino (CF), and Jayson Werth (RF) will be on the team next year and will be the core of the team in 2009. All five of them have the tools to get on base and set up runs or drive in those needed clutch runs in the latter parts of games. The Phillies can make improvements at catcher, third base, and left field.

Carlos Ruiz took a big step back last year with the bat and during the season was splitting time with Chris Coste. Ruiz did have a very good League Championship Series and World Series, but it appears in the Phillies minor league system there is an upcoming catcher with the stronger bat. Lou Marson should be the starting catcher for the Phillies next year. The Phillies will probably start Ruiz at the beginning of the season and ease Lou Marson in. The statistics in 2009 should be as follows:

Projected out for 600 AB

Carlos Ruiz - .248, 79 R, 7 HR, 85 RBI

Lou Marson - .281, 104 R, 12 HR, 84 RBI

Marson will create more runs and hit for more power than Ruiz.

From afar it seems that Ruiz wasn’t playing because he was a superior game caller because Chris Coste was playing to get the bat in the lineup. You would think with a lineup of Rollins, Howard, and Utley that a bat wouldn’t be that much of a concern behind the plate and the Phillies would just desire a quality pitch caller, however with the amount of time Chris Coste played, it was clear that Ruiz had flaws in multiple aspect of the game. Marson will be the upcoming catcher for the Phillies and it should at least be an open competition in Spring Training.

Pedro Feliz had a good season with a little better than average bat and a very good glove. Third base is still a position where the Phillies have been feeling out ever since the trade of Scott Rolen in 2002. Feliz has been the best of their plugs over there, but in this offseason the Phillies have the opportunity to get a better hitter at third, which they will need because Pat Burrell will not and should not be back with the Phillies next year and his bat will need to be replaced. (Pat Burrell will be discussed later on.) Three third basemen the Phillies should be looking at are Russell Branyan, Hank Blalock, and Ramon Vazquez.

Russell Branyan has been a journeyman for his career, but last year when he played for a stretch with the Brewers his swing was different and it had fewer holes. He’ll never be a good average hitter but he will produce. Branyan has terrific power in his bat and in Philadelphia he could put together a terrific season.

Hank Blalock has had injuries over the past few seasons but he’s still young and in the prime of his career. He will be a very good bat in the middle of an already good Phillies lineup and playes a quality third base.

Ramon Vazquez has not been known as an everyday player and coming into 2008, he was the utility man for the Texas Rangers. With injuries to Hank Blalock, he gained a lot of playing time showing a very good glove at third and a surprisingly good bat. He hit consistently throughout the 2008 season ending with a .290 batting average and could be another Victorino-like role player that can continue the excitement the Phillies bring to the park every day.

Here’s how I see these player panning out for the 2009 season:

Projected out for 600 AB

Pedro Feliz - .249, 57 R, 11 HR, 85 RBI

Russell Branyan – .229, 92 R, 46 HR, 92 RBI

Hank Blalock - .281, 85 R, 24 HR, 92 RBI

Ramon Vazquez - .251, 82 R, 12 HR, 68 RBI

One glaring issue with these three replacements is they are all lefty hitter and in a lineup with Utley and Howard, it will be very vulnerable to the lefty pitcher. Because Russell Branyan and Ramon Vazquez have never been everyday players signing them to a short-term deal and platooning with Pedro Feliz will make that spot in the lineup stronger without losing anything in the field. Also, Hank Blalock has had injury concerns because the recent few seasons so luring him over with a slightly longer term deal, because he’s youngest of the three options I feel injuries should not impact him this year. If the Phillies tell him he will platoon for the 2009 season to assure his health and if he remains healthy will be their everyday third baseman in 2010, he’d fit the Phillies well.

Projected third base production (600 AB)

Feliz/Branyan - .234, 83 R, 37 HR, 90 RBI

Feliz/Blalock - .273, 78 R, 21 HR, 90 RBI

Feliz/Vazquez - .251, 76 R, 12 HR, 72 RBI

With platooning, Branyan amplifies power, Blalock amplifies consistency, and Vazquez amplifies the runs scored.

Concerning left field, the Phillies should let Pat Burrell go. He’s still a good bat, however he will command a high price and with the upgrade at third base, they can go with cheaper options that will put up very good numbers. An open competition for the left field slot should be looked into instead of splurging on bigger names. Chris Snelling, Matt Stairs, and Greg Golson should be in competition for left field. Matt Stairs is an older player but he has the veteran presence and has won in his career. Chris Snelling has been moving around a bit in recent years but he is a young player and looks about ready to have a solid season in the major leagues. Greg Golson is a good prospect in the Phillies minor league system and has a good bat. He’s mostly been a centerfielder in the minor leagues, but with the emergence of Shave Victorino in center and Jayson Werth in right, he’ll need to learn left field. Here is how they should perform in 2009

Projected out for 600 AB

Pat Burrell - .255, 94 R, 38 HR, 114 RBI

Chris Snelling - .273, 102 R, 7 HR, 79 RBI

Matt Stairs - .262, 85 R, 28 HR, 95 RBI

Greg Golson - .279 R, 93 R, 22 HR, 90 RBI

Snelling, Stairs and Golson will hit for better averages. None of them are capable for equal power, but as mentioned before with the upgrades at third base, the Phillies offense will benefit with one of these three players in left field.

Now that the offense is done, let’s deal with the surprise of the 2008 Phillies, their pitching. Coming into the 2008 season there was no way anybody expected the Phillies pitching to be as good as last year. Cole Hamels was seen as a very good pitcher and in 2008 he took that final leap in becoming an ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball at the age of 24. J.A. Happ spot started, pitched a little in the bullpen, and eventually replaced Adam Eaton in the rotation and will be a part of the rotation come opening day 2009. Brett Myers had a rough return to the rotation after closing in the 2007 season, but he put himself back together after a brief minor league stint and will be a solid pitcher in 2009. Kyle Kendrick had a rough 2008 season, but the Phillies will not forget what he did in 2007. Kendrick will come into Spring Training strong and will make the rotation on Opening Day. Finally, Jamie Moyer had a great season and doesn’t look like he’ll be slowing down soon, he will be in the back of a rotation that before the 2008 season didn’t look overly special but now looks like a strength.

Another preseason weakness for the Phillies was the bullpen, however one World Series ring later, they are one of the best bullpens in the majors and they should stay together for the most part in 2009. Brad Lidge has resurrected his career. R.J. Swindle has torn up the minor leagues and has shown some good stuff in the majors in 2008 and should be a large contributor in 2009. Ryan Madson found his role as a dominant setup man after spending a lot of his career between starting and relieving. Chad Durbin, J.C. Romero, Clay Condrey and Scott Eyre were solid middle innings pitchers. Even Rudy Seanez, if the Phillies decide to bring him back, would be a strong member in the bullpen.

PROJECTIONS

Ryan Howard – 573 AB, 86 R, .277, 40 HR, 144 RBI

Chase Utley – 598 AB, 91 R, .311, 29 HR, 104 RBI

Jimmy Rollins – 654 AB, 112 R, .283, 21 HR, 78 RBI

Shane Victorino – 617 AB, 112 R, .298, 17 HR, 67 RBI

Jayson Werth – 617 AB, 108 R, .267, 22 HR, 99 RBI

Cole Hamels – 15 W, 9 L, 2.95 ERA, 204 K

J.A. Happ – 10 W, 8 L, 3.75 ERA, 192 K

Brett Myers – 12 W, 10 L, 4.16 ERA, 188 K

Kyle Kendrick – 13 W, 10 L, 3.97 ERA, 54 K

Jamie Moyer – 17 W, 11 L, 4.51 ERA, 118 K

Brad Lidge – 3.58 ERA, 31 SV, 94 K

R.J. Swindle – 1.64 ERA, 6 SV, 58 K

Chad Durbin – 3.50 ERA, 0 SV, 42 K

J.C. Romero – 3.75 ERA, 1 SV, 64 K

Ryan Madson – 3.07 ERA, 1 SV, 79 K

Clay Condrey – 4.12 ERA, 2 SV, 47 K

America's Pastime

Monday, November 10, 2008

Offseason Projections: November 10, 2008

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Philadelphia Phillies

Monday, September 22, 2008

Projection: Monday, September 22, 2008

Monday, September 15, 2008

Projection: Monday, September 15, 2008

Monday, September 8, 2008

Projection: Monday, September 8, 2008

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TAM	96	66	0.593	NYM	89	73	0.549
BOS	95	67	0.586	PHI	89	73	0.549
NYY	85	77	0.525	FLA	81	81	0.5
TOR	85	77	0.525	ATL	73	89	0.451
BAL	73	89	0.451	WAS	62	100	0.383

CHW	90	72	0.556	CHC	102	60	0.63
MIN	88	74	0.543	MIL	87	75	0.537
CLE	81	81	0.5	HOU	85	77	0.525
DET	76	86	0.469	STL	85	77	0.525
KC	71	91	0.438	CIN	75	87	0.463
				PIT	70	92	0.432

LAA	96	66	0.593	LAD	86	76	0.531
TEX	80	82	0.494	ARI	81	81	0.5
OAK	76	86	0.469	COL	74	88	0.457
SEA	64	98	0.395	SFG	73	89	0.451
				SDP	62	100	0.383

TAM	94	68	0.580	NYM	90	72	0.562
BOS	93	69	0.574	PHI	87	75	0.537
TOR	92	70	0.568	FLA	78	84	0.481
NYY	81	81	0.500	ATL	74	88	0.457
BAL	74	88	0.457	WAS	63	99	0.389

CHW	89	73	0.549	CHC	101	61	0.617
MIN	88	74	0.543	STL	90	72	0.556
CLE	82	80	0.506	MIL	88	74	0.543
DET	80	82	0.494	HOU	84	78	0.519
KC	69	93	0.426	CIN	72	90	0.444
				PIT	70	92	0.432

LAA	93	69	0.574	LAD	88	74	0.543
TEX	79	83	0.488	ARI	81	81	0.500
OAK	72	90	0.444	COL	74	88	0.457
SEA	70	92	0.432	SFG	69	93	0.426
				SDP	65	97	0.401