Monday, April 27, 2009

Projection: April 27, 2009

BOS 98 64 0.605
PHI 85 77 0.525
TOR 90 72 0.556
NYM 81 81 0.500
NYY 86 76 0.531
ATL 78 84 0.481
TBR 85 77 0.525
FLA 74 88 0.457
BAL 74 88 0.457
WAS 74 88 0.457









DET 90 72 0.556
STL 94 68 0.580
CHW 81 81 0.500
CHC 87 75 0.537
MIN 80 82 0.494
PIT 87 75 0.537
KC 79 83 0.488
MIL 81 81 0.500
CLE 70 92 0.432
CIN 76 86 0.469





HOU 73 89 0.451









LAA 81 81 0.500
LAD 97 65 0.599
SEA 81 81 0.500
COL 84 78 0.519
OAK 78 84 0.481
SDP 77 85 0.475
TEX 78 84 0.481
ARI 66 96 0.407





SFG 65 97 0.401

Note: Angels win one-game playoff over Mariners. Cubs win one-game playoff over Pirates.

ALDS: Angels over Red Sox, Blue Jays over Tigers
NLDS: Cubs over Dodgers, Phillies over Cardinals

ALCS: Angels over Blue Jays
NLCS: Phillies over Cubs

World Series: Angels over Phillies

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Dodgers need pitching for success in '09

Coming into this season, there was no question the Dodgers would be able to score runs. Their major flaw was in their pitching staff with both the starting rotation and the bullpen. Some of these questions have been addressed during the Dodgers’ fast start.

Jonathan Broxton is in his first full season as the Dodgers closer and though he has the skills, it was unclear how he would perform as the full-time closer. In past years, when he was slotted in to be the closer from time to time, he was inconsistent. So far into this young season, he has been as good as anybody could be. He has 4 saves and given up only one hit. He has yet to walk anybody. In these days, with such importance of the bullpen, there is much discussion that pitchers need defined roles. Perhaps previously as the set up man, he did not feel as secure as a closer. Now the role is defined for him as the closer and he is now dominating the opposition.

Ramon Troncoso is a middle reliever in the Dodgers bullpen. When thinking about how good a team is, you think starting pitching, offensive lineup, and defense. Even when thinking about the quality of the bullpen, you think closer and maybe set up man, but this guy is key. I see Troncoso eventually solidifying the set up role to Jonathan Broxton. He has been much better than expected as a middle reliever. He throws strikes and induces more ground balls than balls hit into the air. He will take full advantage of the good infield defense behind him.

Randy Wolf has performed better than expected so far this year. One major concern was the depth of the rotation and Wolf was seen as a stabilizing force. He will give you an ERA in the low to mid 4s and will keep the Dodgers in the game on a consistent basis. With a solid offense behind him, he can put together one of his highest win totals in his career.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Projection: April 20, 2009

NYY 89 73 0.549
NYM 85 77 0.525
BOS 89 73 0.549
FLA 81 81 0.500
TOR 88 74 0.543
ATL 79 83 0.488
TBR 85 77 0.525
PHI 79 83 0.488
BAL 73 89 0.451
WAS 72 90 0.444









DET 88 74 0.543
STL 91 71 0.562
CHW 85 77 0.525
CHC 90 72 0.556
KC 83 79 0.512
PIT 83 79 0.512
CLE 75 87 0.463
MIL 80 82 0.494
MIN 75 87 0.463
HOU 75 87 0.463





CIN 72 90 0.444









SEA 86 76 0.531
LAD 101 61 0.623
TEX 79 83 0.488
SDP 85 77 0.525
OAK 79 83 0.488
COL 83 79 0.512
LAA 77 85 0.475
ARI 62 100 0.383





SFG 61 101 0.377

Note: Yankees win tiebreak over Red Sox.

ALDS: Yankees over Mariners, Red Sox over Tigers
NLDS: Cubs over Dodgers, Mets over Cardinals

ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox
NLCS: Cubs over Mets

World Series: Yankees over Cubs

Monday, April 13, 2009

Seattle heading in the right direction

They’ve had a pleasant start to the season. Last year, they were to be a playoff contender and never got it started. This year is a rebuilding year and they seem to be having some better results in the early going.


Jarrod Washburn has really not been the dominant pitching the Mariners hoped they’d be getting when they signed him after the 2005 season. He was hurt last year which minimized his innings and his effectiveness, but his first start this season was very impressive. It’s tough to take a lot from the first start of the season, except it shows that he still has talent. He went 8 innings and did not break the 100 pitch count. He was efficient, effective, and did not allow any runs to the Minnesota Twins. The Twins aren’t the greatest team, but they have some good hitters.


Mark Lowe had his first full big league season last year with plenty of ups and downs. I am not here to say that this is over, but he’s yet to give up a run in two innings, which doesn’t sound terribly impressive, but I’ll continue. His first outing, he blew away the Twins facing 3 batters and striking out 2. His second outing against Oakland wasn’t as dominating, but the key to relieving is being about to pitch out of trouble and make the pitches to get the proper results. After allowing a hit and a walk to the first two batters of the eighth inning with the tying run in the batter’s box, he induced a double play followed by a ground out. Although, he worked into trouble, he had the capability to get himself out of trouble taking advantage of the good defense behind him.


Adrian Beltre is not blowing the cover off the ball with overwhelming statistics, but he’s been involved in winning for the Mariners. I had low expectations for him and he’s been better than that. Also, I never took into account it’s another contract year. His last contract year, he was phenomenal hitting .334 with 48 HR and 121 RBI, all three being career highs that he’s never come close to any other season. It’s only been one week and I’m sure he’ll regress a little from his decent start but he’s a player to take not of on this team.



Erik Bedard has had a good start to the year. He had a decent start his first time out and a dominating start afterwards. He was hurt last year and never was able to string together quality results. Now he looks healthy and possible poised to return to his form of two years ago, before his late season injury. He threw 102 pitches in 8-1/3 innings while not giving up a run. This the Erik Bedard the Mariners were hoping to get last year.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Projection: April 13, 2009

NYY 95 67 0.586
ATL 88 74 0.543
BOS 88 74 0.543
NYM 84 78 0.519
TOR 85 77 0.525
PHI 83 79 0.512
TBR 85 77 0.525
FLA 74 88 0.457
BAL 76 86 0.469
WAS 67 95 0.414









CHW 86 76 0.531
CHC 90 72 0.556
DET 83 79 0.512
STL 90 72 0.556
CLE 77 85 0.475
MIL 80 82 0.494
KC 75 87 0.463
PIT 82 80 0.506
MIN 74 88 0.457
CIN 75 87 0.463





HOU 72 90 0.444









LAA 87 75 0.537
COL 90 72 0.556
SEA 81 81 0.500
LAD 87 75 0.537
TEX 80 82 0.494
SDP 86 76 0.531
OAK 79 83 0.488
ARI 67 95 0.414





SFG 64 98 0.395

Note: Cubs win tiebreak over Cardinals and Rockies.

ALDS: Yankees over White Sox, Angels over Red Sox
NLDS: Cubs over Braves, Rockies over Cardinals

ALCS: Yankees over Angels
NLCS: Cubs over Rockies

World Series: Yankees over Cubs

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Bringing and Killing the Hype

Kansas City Royals

There is huge excitement about the prospects of the Kansas City Royals this season, however, there are a few reasons to curb your enthusiasm. There's no denying the fact the Royals added some offense by trading for Mike Jacobs (1B/DH) from the Marlins and Coco Crisp (OF) from the Red Sox, but there are issues with the lineup. Billy Butler (1B/DH) is a young hitter the Royals are very high on, but I don't believe he's ready for the major leagues yet, not the way the Royals expect him to hit and he's expected to be in the middle of the lineup. The pitching staff has major concerns. Zack Greinke is coming off a very good season and there's no reason why he can't repeat but two of their young pitchers in Brian Bannister and Luke Hochevar will be starting in the minors this season and taking their place on the major league roster are Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez, neither are strong starters.

Colorado Rockies

The 2007 National League Champions are coming off a rough 2008, but they will rebound this year and be in the playoff hunt. They benefit from a weak NL West but they also have good personnel. Jeff Francis was lost for the year, but their rotation will be able to handle the loss. Aaron Cook proved last year he was able to be a number one starter on the Rockies. Matt Holliday (OF) was traded to the Oakland Athletics, but Seth Smith (OF) will be a more than adequate replacement for Holliday in left field. Brad Hawpe (OF) had a down year, Todd Helton (1B) is heathier, and Troy Tulowitzki (SS) is back and ready to continue on what he had done in 2007, his rookie year. The Rockies have the strongest offense in their division and their pitching will be good enough to carry them to a division title.

Arizona Diamondbacks

This year's most overrated team goes to the Diamondbacks. Justin Upton (OF) will have the breakout season everyone is looking for, but the rest of the offense is mediocre at best. Chad Tracy (1B/3B) is not an ideal offensive first baseman, Mark Reynolds (3B) swings and misses at intentional ball four, and Chris Young (OF) does not have the on base percentage of a leadoff hitter. They don't have adequate table setters and those who drive in those table setters aren't strong. There's no big middle of the order threat. The pitching is the strong suit of the team, however Jon Garland is not as great starter. He had one terrific season with 18 wins, his other 18 win season was a product of strong offensive support. He gives a high ERA and will eat up innings, he more of the ideal five pitcher, but he'll be either the number three or number four pitcher. The bullpen the weakest part of their pitching staff. Once Jon Rauch was taken from a no-hope situation in Washington, to a playoff race in Arizona, he was terrible with an ERA of over 6. Tom Gordon does not have major league stuff anymore. Doug Slaten is not overly impressive. Even if they have leads, their bullpen will be prone to give it up and they won't be capable of regaining the lead. In the end, the starters will be pushed to extra innings and in September they will be hurt or completely tired.

Opening Day Projections

NYY 95 67 0.586
PHI 88 74 0.543
BOS 94 68 0.580
NYM 84 78 0.519
TOR 83 79 0.512
ATL 82 80 0.506
TBR 81 81 0.500
WAS 75 87 0.463
BAL 75 87 0.463
FLA 68 94 0.420









CHW 84 78 0.519
CHC 88 74 0.543
DET 81 81 0.500
STL 84 78 0.519
CLE 80 82 0.494
MIL 83 79 0.512
MIN 80 82 0.494
CIN 81 81 0.500
KC 74 88 0.457
HOU 80 82 0.494





PIT 76 86 0.469









LAA 87 75 0.537
COL 85 77 0.525
OAK 82 80 0.506
LAD 84 78 0.519
TEX 81 81 0.500
SDP 79 83 0.488
SEA 74 88 0.457
ARI 73 89 0.451





SFG 69 93 0.426

Notes: Phillies win the tie-breaker over the Cubs. Dodgers win the wild card after a series of play-in games over the Mets and Cardinals.

ALDS: Yankees over White Sox, Red Sox over Angels
NLDS: Dodgers over Phillies, Cubs over Rockies

ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox
NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers

World Series: Yankees over Cubs
 
flower power by time life
flower power by time life