Who will be this year's Rays?

First of all, I hate that phrase “be this year’s…whatever”, but a cliché is a cliché and the baseball fan knows what I mean. So, I’ll just be lazy and stay in the same state.

The Florida Marlins are the surprise team everyone is talking about. (I guess that kills the surprise.) It’s not like me to choose a team that’s the favorite underdog, so starting the season I’ll lower expectations.

My reason for low-balling them is health. Their starting pitching has phenomenal talent, however Josh Johnson has had his share of injuries and Anibal Sanchez (one no-hitter under the belt) hasn’t pitched a full season in a while. Both pitchers have huge upside and with Ricky Nolasco and Chris Volstad (2.88 ERA in 14 career starts), the Marlins can have a strong rotation.

The youth in their pitching almost mirrors that of the Tampa Bay Rays. The difference between both teams is the offense. The Rays offense underachieved significantly last year, mostly as a result of youth. The Marlins offense, although young, is not as inexperienced as the Rays were and should breed more consistency. They have Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Jorge Cantu as three players more than capable of 30 home run seasons and driving in over 300 runs between them.

But as another cliché goes: Pitching wins. (Scoring runs does help.) Look at what the Rays did in a strong American League. What are the possibilities for the Marlins in the weaker National League? They can win the NL East. The Phillies didn’t deserve it last year (I hear the booing from Philadelphia) and the Mets didn’t want it.

But as of right now, I will not buy in completely to the Marlins until I see some durability. The pitching can have all the talent in the world, but if it has the luck of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, or Ben Sheets, it could be another mediocre season.