The Milwaukee Brewers are legitimate contenders in this upcoming season. They have the personnel to be one of the top teams in the National League. The key to this team, like any other potential contender, is health.
I was a fan of the Brewers coming into last season and they didn’t disappoint until the very end. They were a decent to good team in the weakest division in baseball, which can only be a recipe for success. They have improved this off-season, as well as during the season last year, making their team stronger in a still weak division.
Starting Pitching
I mentioned health at the beginning and here’s the man it applies to the most on this team. Ben Sheets is the Brewers ace when healthy. The problem is he hasn’t been healthy for an entire season since the 2004 season. Sheets, when healthy, is a strong number one in any rotation and a Cy Young Award candidate. Each time he goes to the mound, the Brewers have a good chance of winning.
Dave Bush took a step back last year posting an ERA of over 5. He will never be an ace but he is a solid middle to bottom of the order pitcher that should lower his ERA to below 4.50. Although his ERA was high, he still posted a winning record. The Brewers offense should post similar numbers this year, given that he should win more games as he perfects his pitching.
Expect nothing different from Jeff Suppan this year from last year. In his first year in Milwaukee, he posted nothing spectacular. He was signed to a nice contract in response to his quality playoff pitching in the 2006 season and he didn’t perform to his contract. He can post better numbers than he did last year, which was his worst ERA since the 2003 season, but don’t expect an ace at the age of 33.
Carlos Villanueva is a very young pitcher who is a capable starter. He will post a solid ERA and with the potential run support see him to have around 15 wins. Villanueva will establish himself as the best pitcher behind Ben Sheets and he’s only getting better at the age of 24.
With the loss of Yovani Gallardo to arthroscopic knee surgery for the beginning of the season, Chris Capuano gets a chance to show that last year was a fluke. If he had performed to where he was in the 2005 and 2006 season, the Brewers might have been in the playoffs instead of tailing off at the end of the season. Capuano started off 5-0 into May, then never won a game again. He should bounce back and not be the weakest link if and when Gallardo comes back.
The wild card in this pitching rotation is Yovani Gallardo. Whatever the Brewers can get out of Gallardo will be solid. He’s only 21 years old who pitched very well last year for the Brewers and will be an integral part of the rotation for many years to come.
Relief Pitching
The new closer for the Brewers is Eric Gagne. He’s going to have erase his memory from his short stint in Boston where he was nothing but miserable. Gagne still has something left in his tank, but he’s going to have to understand he’s no longer the power closer he was in Los Angeles where he won a Cy Young Award. He will need to mix his pitches better than he did in Boston where his change-up was very predictable and hittable. He will have a better year in Milwaukee, where they will be contenders but the pressure will not feel as large as it did in Boston.
Let’s not sugar-coat this at all, Derrick Turnbow has been bad the last two seasons. I don’t what to expect from the Brewers set up man this year. Will he be the 2005 Derrick Turnbow again or the Derrick Turnbow of the last two seasons? As long as he pitches better than last year, the Brewers should be in good shape, but I’m not sure what he will bring to the table.
David Riske has been a reliable reliever over his career. He was solid pick up for the Brewers looking to stabilize their bullpen. Last year for the Royals he posted an ERA of 2.45 and since 2003 his ERA has been 3.03.
The Mets found a sucker to take Guillermo Mota off their hands. Mota should be better than last year where he lost his confidence and his unpredictability. He still has quality stuff with a hard fastball and a solid changeup, but he never mixed it up well and he’s not getting any younger.
Salomon Torres has been around for what seems like forever. He’s coming off his worst season since the 1997 season, but expect him to bounce back a little. He’s not going to dominate every time he takes the mound but he will be solid middle reliever for the Brewers. Part of his struggles might have been related to his lack of enthusiasm with the floundering Pirates and his age which will be 36 at the start of the season. He’s not a setup man or a closer anymore.
Seth McClung looked like he turned a corner last year by posting an ERA below 5 for the first time in his career although in limited number of appearances. He should be pitching more frequently this year and could become the backup plan if Turnbow doesn’t pan out for the third consecutive season. He’s still young enough and can still improve.
The Starters
Jason Kendall is no where near the offensive threat he used to be. He’s an aging catcher that is approaching mediocrity. He never was a power threat but he used to be a consistent .300 hitter and even a base stealer. That is not his game anymore. He will bat at the bottom of the lineup and call a good game for the pitcher. His veteran presence will help the young pitchers develop.
In 2007, at the age of 23, Prince Fielder hit 50 home runs and he’s not considered in his prime yet. He can still get better, which is the most frightening aspect about him. Fielder moves quite well for a big man and fields very well also. He will be the cleanup hitter for the Brewers for many years and an NL MVP candidate for many years. He has the ability to get one of those trophies on his shelf after this season. Not enough can be said about this young baseball prodigy, but he has already established himself as one of the most feared hitters in the game.
Rickie Weeks is a talented second baseman, although no one could tell based on his batting average last season. He has some power and will be better this year. His confidence was shot as the beginning of the season and it’s difficult to get it back when you’re a young player in the big leagues. He’s got good power for a second baseman and very good speed. He’ll probably never be a .300 hitter and needs to cut down on his strike outs, but he has a good on base percentage. He hit .235 last season and still had an on base percentage of .374.
Bill Hall will man third base this season. He played center field last year, but with Ryan Braun moving to the outfield, the Brewers needed a third baseman. 2006 was his breakout year hitting 35 home runs. Last year, that power didn’t show up. He’s been a solid infielder in his career, but played centerfield because the Brewers wanted his bat in the lineup. He will be a solid defender at third. Look for a slight rebound in his power, but will not be the power that most teams look for in a third baseman.
J.J. Hardy has emerged as a very good hitting shortstop. He hit 26 home runs and drove in 80 runs in the 2007 season. He’s also young like Weeks and Fielder and will continue to improve. His fielding was a little sub par, but he with some work he’ll get better. Hardy was a very streaky hitter in his first full season. He started the season very hot and then cooled off a bit, but had an overall quality season.
The Brewers will have to hope that Ryan Braun’s move to the outfield will not distract him from his hitting. The reign NL Rookie of the Year only played for two-thirds of a season and still hit .324 with 34 home runs and 97 RBIs. He’s also very young and will continue to improve. He’s got incredible power, but needs to improve his eye. He’ll have to trade some of his strike outs for walks or else pitchers will figure him out. He was a liability at third base, even though he showed flashes of brilliance, and his move to the outfield will be a new experience for him.
Mike Cameron is a very good fielding centerfielder. His offense has been inconsistent, but he hits for good power and a middle of the line average. It was a good pickup for the Brewers in the short term. He’ll provide assistance to the outfielding neophyte in Ryan Braun by covering a lot of field which will help with the learning curve.
Corey Hart established himself as a good hitting right fielder. He has the potential to be a 30-30 man. He hit 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases in 2007. Look for him to improve on those numbers this season.
The Brewers have a powerful, young core. They have young pitching and young hitting. There’s enough talent on this team to carry them to the playoffs, and they’re not even at their peak yet. They will be a fun team to follow in 2008 and in the years to come.
