The Highest Paid Reliever

Who is the highest paid relief pitcher in all of baseball?

Would you guess Barry Zito?

Yes, the same Barry Zito who signed a 7 year, $126 million contract has been moved to the Giants bullpen. He is the same Barry Zito who won the Cy Young Award in 2002 winning 23 games. However, he is the same in name only. He is a far cry from that form.

He is 0-6 this season in 6 starts. Well you may all say the Giants are a light hitting team, but his ERA is over 7. Even the team where Bonds and Aurilia combined for over 100 home runs could not help this man win a game (see 2001 Giants).

What happened to this pitcher? Talent doesn’t just disappear, does it? Well perhaps for Roberto Alomar in 2002, it does, but he was getting older. Zito is still in his prime. He’s never been on the DL. No one has seen any structural damage to him.

Here’s what I believe is the problem. Rick Peterson, the current Mets pitching coach, refined his skill and made him into a great pitcher. Zito, because of the wear and tear of a season, started compensating for some minor pains he had by altering his mechanics slightly changing the way he pitches. With Peterson no longer being with Zito, the new pitching coach was unaware of how Peterson made Zito dominant. These compensations turned into habits which then turned into his new mechanics. These new mechanics are not as good and Peterson is not there to fix him.

Memo to Mets Fans: Relax!

As trying to bring reason to the lackluster beginning of the Mets season, one huge scapegoat, who also has a huge contract and is paid to supply a huge bat, is Carlos Delgado. Delgado, the power hitting first baseman, is off to a slow start batting a little over .200 with three homeruns (including the two he hit yesterday) and the Met fan sees this is a continuation of the poor output in 2007. For those who followed the pattern of Delgado’s season in 2007, whenever he looked comfortable at the plate and was hitting the ball like the Delgado the Mets wanted and traded for, he would get injured which cooled him off. He never was able to get into a rhythm.

Now to address the myth of his slowing bat that’s spiraling him into mediocrity. He is batting .306 against power pitchers this season, which means one thing: he’s able to catch up to hard pitches. He can get his bat into the zone quick enough to hit a hard fastball. Mets fans rejoice. Delgado can still hit.

During the September debacle, one figure that went unnoticed was Delgado batted .321. After the all star break last season, he batted .288 which is higher than his career average.

Yes, there is a bad taste in your mouth from the end of last season and the Mets as a whole have not gotten into a solid groove yet, but it’s early. All your booing is almost tempting me to compare you to the kind of fans you despise: Phillies fans. Insulted yet? You can be passionate without being harsh.

We both know Delgado is not in the prime of his career. He won’t be the primary clean up hitter at any point this season. But he won’t maintain his status as the black hole in the lineup for the entire season. He will be there for you, Met fans. Sit back, relax, and watch Delgado drive in those runs.

Projection: Monday, April 28, 2008

TAM	90	72	0.556			NYM	92	70	0.568
TOR	87	75	0.537			ATL	91	71	0.562
NYY	85	77	0.525			PHI	77	85	0.475
BOS	79	83	0.488			FLA	66	96	0.407
BAL	74	88	0.457			WAS	65	97	0.401
CLE	93	69	0.574			CHC	92	70	0.568
CHW	86	76	0.531			HOU	86	76	0.531
DET	76	86	0.469			MIL	85	77	0.525
MIN	76	86	0.469			STL	82	80	0.506
KC	76	86	0.469			CIN	70	92	0.432
						PIT	69	93	0.426
LAA	89	73	0.549			ARI	96	66	0.593
OAK	85	77	0.525			LAD	93	69	0.574
SEA	84	78	0.519			COL	75	87	0.463
TEX	74	88	0.457			SDP	73	89	0.451
						SFG	64	98	0.395

Best Team to Miss Playoffs (AL): New York Yankees
Best Team to Miss Playoffs (NL): Atlanta Braves

ALDS: Blue Jays defeat Indians, Angels defeat Rays
NLDS: Diamondbacks defeat Mets, Cubs defeat Dodgers

ALCS: Blue Jays defeat Angels
NLCS: Cubs defeat Diamondbacks

World Series: Blue Jays defeat Cubs

Note: I expect interesting comments on these projections.

Hank wants Joba to Start

Joba Chamberlain should eventually be in the starting rotation, but the process would be too taxing on the pitching staff. He would have to be sent down to the minors for about a month to gradually lengthen his outings. He's usually only in the game for an inning at a time and the Yankees would need him to be on the mound an average of 6 innings. Sending Chamberlain to the minors would weaken an already susceptible bullpen and could hurt the Yankees' chances this season. When he makes his transition to the starting rotation, it should be done in spring training so the Yankees don't miss his lively arm (like the Red Sox tried with Papelbon in 2007). He's got the stuff to be a solid starting pitcher, but now can't be the time.

Also, I find it interesting that Steinbrenner leaves Mussina out of his ideal starting rotation while he's been pitching better than Hughes or Kennedy. If there was a plan to move Chamberlain to the rotation, upon his return one of the younger pitchers would be the ones out of the rotation (unless Mussina implodes). The Yankees have a difficult situation on their hands and they'll be looking around to make some moves to help their starting rotation because moving Chamberlain is not a feasible solution this season.

Projection: Monday, April 21, 2008

TOR	91	71	0.562			ATL	96	66	0.593
NYY	85	77	0.525			NYM	92	70	0.568
BOS	84	78	0.519			PHI	77	85	0.475
TAM	80	82	0.494			WAS	63	99	0.389
BAL	71	91	0.438			FLA	63	99	0.389
CLE	86	76	0.531			CHC	90	72	0.556
CHW	83	79	0.512			HOU	87	75	0.537
KC	82	80	0.506			MIL	85	77	0.525
MIN	76	86	0.469			STL	80	82	0.494
DET	70	92	0.432			CIN	77	85	0.475
						PIT	70	92	0.432
LAA	87	75	0.537			ARI	105	57	0.648
SEA	81	81	0.500			LAD	92	70	0.568
TEX	80	82	0.494			COL	82	80	0.506
OAK	73	89	0.451			SDP	75	87	0.463
						SFG	67	95	0.414

Best Team to Miss Playoffs (AL): Boston Red Sox
Best Team to Miss Playoffs (NL): New York Mets

ALDS: Blue Jays defeat Indians, Yankees defeat Angels
NLDS: Diamondbacks defeat Cubs, Dodgers defeat Braves

ALCS: Blue Jays defeat Yankees
NLCS: Dodgers defeat Diamondbacks

World Series: Blue Jays defeat Dodgers

Blue Jays Release Thomas

Frank Thomas was released by the Toronto Blue Jays a day after he was left out of the lineup. He has been struggling at the start of this season, but was that the reason behind releasing him? For those who have followed Thomas after his White Sox career, you saw him have slow starts. In Oakland, retirement speculation surrounded him because of his slow start, however, if you were to compare his numbers between 2006, 2007, and 2008 in his first 16 games, you would see very little difference.

	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
2006	56	8	10	4	9	0.179	0.246	0.429
2007	58	8	12	2	5	0.207	0.333	0.345
2008	60	7	10	3	11	0.167	0.306	0.333

So why release him now? There has to be another reason other than lack of production because the Blue Jays will struggle to replace his power in the middle of the lineup. They have Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, but then who else? Shannon Stewart, David Eckstein, Aaron Hill, and Gregg Zaun are not known for their power. Lyle Overbay provides good power but not enough to replace Frank Thomas. Scott Rolen could perform enough to replace Thomas, but how often will he be around during the season. Rolen has been known for his history of health issues.

Now look at how Thomas ended his 2006 and 2007 seasons after his slow starts.

	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
2006	466	77	126	39	114	0.270	0.381	0.545
2007	531	63	147	26	95	0.277	0.377	0.480

Between 2006 and 2007, there was a power drop off and he's not as good as he was in his prime, but he's still got plenty left in his bat. There had to be some sort of behind the scenes issue to prompt this release, because this is not a good move for the Blue Jays who hope to overtake the Yankee-Red Sox strangehold on the AL East.

Recommendations: April 16, 2008

For teams that are struggling, here are my recommendations:

Minnesota Twins

Focus: Bullpen

Best Options (In Order)

1. Dennys Reyes
2. Joe Nathan
3. Brian Bass

Avoid for Today

1. Matt Guerrier
2. Jesse Crain
3. Pat Neshek
4. Juan Rincon

Note: Livan Hernandez will need to pitch deep into this game in order for the Twins to have a chance to win today.

Texas Rangers

Focus: Batting Lineup and Bullpen

1. Ramon Vazquez, 1b
2. Ian Kinsler, 2B
3. Milton Bradley, DH
4. Josh Hamilton, CF
5. Gerald Laird, C
6. Hank Blalock, 3B
7. David Murphy, RF
8. Michael Young, SS
9. Frank Catalanotto, LF

Best Options (In Order)

1. Wes Littleton
2. C.J. Wilson
3. Jamey Wright
4. Joaquin Benoit
5. Franklyn German

Avoid for Today

1. Dustin Nippert
2. Josh Rupe

Reason why Rangers lost: Josh Rupe was 6th on my most trusted list, meaning there were 5 better. Now I never said for him not to play so I wasn't completely correct, but there were definitely others who would have been better. Rupe gave up 3 runs. Rangers lost by 3 runs. Enough said.

Cincinnati Reds

Focus: Batting Lineup and Bullpen

1. Scott Hatteberg, 1B
2. Ken Griffey Jr., RF
3. Paul Bako, C
4. Corey Patterson, CF
5. Jeff Keppinger, SS
6. Adam Dunn, LF
7. Brandon Phillips, 2B
8. Ryan Freel, 3B
9. Josh Fogg, P

Best Options (In Order)

1. Francisco Cordero
2. Kent Mercker
3. Mike Lincoln
4. Jeremy Affeldt
5. Jared Burton
6. David Weathers

Avoid for Today

1. Todd Coffey

Reason why Reds lost: Corey Patterson cannot lead off a game, at least not yet. It seems that he presses when he leads off a game and as a result going 0 for 4 yesterday. Patterson has shown the most power in the most recent games for the Reds. If the Reds want to win, they should treat him as a power hitter for the short term.